Conflict Risk Plug-in

The CONIAS Conflict Risk Plug-in offers a comprehensive assessment of the security situation worldwide on a subnational level, thus augmenting the flow of information and the planning capabilities within your supply chain management. In order to comply with widely varying needs and requirements, CONIAS provides three distinct risk indicators calculated and displayed separately for each subnational unit worldwide: Structural Conflict Risk, Current Conflict Risk and the Conflict Risk Trend. Our indicators are all matched to a consistent scale, ranging from zero to ten. Due to this threefold breakdown of risk, our product can be used for strategic decision-making as well as monitoring geographic locations of particular interest. The underlying scientific methodology and the resulting services of CONIAS have won multiple awards and are successfully in use at several enterprises.

Structural Conflict Risk

As analyses show, states are unevenly affected by severe political violence. This indicator informs about the structural disposition and inclination of particular countries and their respective regions towards political violence. The Structural Conflict Risk value comprises systematically assessed historic conflict sequences taken from the CONIAS conflict database and is augmented with meaningful socioeconomic data.

The purpose of the Structural Conflict Risk is to identify states or regions with a low capacity to resolve conflicts, thereby indicating a heightened political risk, and is thus suitable to make predictions about the long-term conflict risk.

Current Conflict Risk

The assessment of the monthly conflict risk in a geographical unit is based on the specific intensities of the conflicts that prevail in the region at a given point in time. The intensities are continually captured and calculated in accordance with the CONIAS methodology.

The Current Conflict Risk indicator informs about the actual political risk in a region on a monthly basis.

Conflict Risk Trend

The Conflict Risk Trend outlines the anticipated risk of a subnational unit and is monthly updated. The scope of the trend covers the upcoming months. The Trend takes several factors into account, e.g. past conflict intensity fluctuations, the respective conflict items and their affinity to conflict escalation. Additionally, the Trend indicator includes information about imminent significant political events like elections.

The Conflict Risk Trend predicts the future conflict risk in a region and therefore functions as valid indicator for short-term decision making.