The assignment of the risk value within a geographic unit follows from the corresponding intensities of the prevailing conflicts in said region. If for instance, two distinct conflicts in a region are conducted with an intensity of three, a risk value of five for the area can be reached through aggregation.
At present, we distinguish between the following risk ranges:
Risk value 0 < 2
| Description: | Political conflicts are carried out without the use of force and mostly inside established regulatory and legal procedures. |
| Examples: | 7/2017, Toronto, Canada – 100 indigenous protesters march against the mistreatment of indigenous people. 7/2017, Saxony, Germany– During his visit in Dresden, Federal Minister of Justice, Heiko Maas, was met with loud protests from AFD supporters. |
| Exposure: | No interferences in the affected region. |
Risk value 2 < 3
| Description: | Political conflicts are carried out non-violently. Actors might threaten to depart from regulated procedures or to use violence. Large-scale manifestations of political dissent are often met with coercive measures by the state. |
| Examples: | 2/2017, Bucharest, Romania – 250,000 protesters fill streets of Bucharest marching against new corruption law. 8/2017, Hokkaido, Japan – North Korea fires missile over Japan. |
| Exposure: | No or little interferences in the affected region but the security situation could escalate. |
Risk value 3 < 4,5
| Description: | Violence occurred in the affected region. |
| Examples: | 1/2017, Washington D.C., United States – One man shot during clashes at pro-Trump event. 7/2017, Guerrero, Mexico – Seven policemen killed by armed men in ambush. |
| Exposure: | Occurrences of violence, assaults on employees, kidnappings, roadblocks and damage to the infrastructure are possible. |
Risk value 4,5 < 8
| Description: | The region is increasingly affected by violent conflicts. Use of heavy weapons is possible. Grave conflict consequences like a higher death toll are given. |
| Examples: | 7/2017, Donetsk, Ukraine – Militants launch several attacks on positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine using light and heavy weapons. 7/2017, South Kivu, DR Congo – Several distinct conflicts lead to an increased risk level in South Kivu. Mayi-Mayi and FNL attacks leave dozens killed |
| Exposure: | Occurrence of increased and possibly systematic violence, assaults on employees, kidnappings, roadblocks and damage to the infrastructure are likely. |
Risk value 8 < 10
| Description: | The region is in a state of war. Conflicts are carried out violently most likely with heavy weapons leading to increased destruction of infrastructure and a higher death toll. |
| Examples: | 7/2017, Mindanao, Philippines – Major military operation against Abu Sayyaf kills 22 islamists. 4/2017, Nangahar, Afghanistan – MOAB kills more than 92 ISIS militants |
| Exposure: | Highly violent confrontations are almost unavoidable. Highest danger to employees and sites. |
