The assignment of the risk value within a geographic unit follows from the corresponding intensities of the prevailing conflicts in said region. If for instance, two distinct conflicts in a region are conducted with an intensity of three, a risk value of five for the area can be reached through aggregation.
At present, we distinguish between the following risk ranges:
Risk value 0 < 2
|Description:||Political conflicts are carried out without the use of force and mostly inside established regulatory and legal procedures.|
|Examples:||7/2017, Toronto, Canada – 100 indigenous protesters march against the mistreatment of indigenous people.
7/2017, Saxony, Germany– During his visit in Dresden, Federal Minister of Justice, Heiko Maas, was met with loud protests from AFD supporters.
|Exposure:||No interferences in the affected region.|
Risk value 2 < 3
|Description:||Political conflicts are carried out non-violently. Actors might threaten to depart from regulated procedures or to use violence. Large-scale manifestations of political dissent are often met with coercive measures by the state.|
|Examples:||2/2017, Bucharest, Romania – 250,000 protesters fill streets of Bucharest marching against new corruption law.
8/2017, Hokkaido, Japan – North Korea fires missile over Japan.
|Exposure:||No or little interferences in the affected region but the security situation could escalate.|
Risk value 3 < 4,5
|Description:||Violence occurred in the affected region.|
|Examples:||1/2017, Washington D.C., United States – One man shot during clashes at pro-Trump event.
7/2017, Guerrero, Mexico – Seven policemen killed by armed men in ambush.
|Exposure:||Occurrences of violence, assaults on employees, kidnappings, roadblocks and damage to the infrastructure are possible.|
Risk value 4,5 < 8
|Description:||The region is increasingly affected by violent conflicts. Use of heavy weapons is possible. Grave conflict consequences like a higher death toll are given.|
|Examples:||7/2017, Donetsk, Ukraine – Militants launch several attacks on positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine using light and heavy weapons.
7/2017, South Kivu, DR Congo – Several distinct conflicts lead to an increased risk level in South Kivu. Mayi-Mayi and FNL attacks leave dozens killed
|Exposure:||Occurrence of increased and possibly systematic violence, assaults on employees, kidnappings, roadblocks and damage to the infrastructure are likely.|
Risk value 8 < 10
|Description:||The region is in a state of war. Conflicts are carried out violently most likely with heavy weapons leading to increased destruction of infrastructure and a higher death toll.|
|Examples:||7/2017, Mindanao, Philippines – Major military operation against Abu Sayyaf kills 22 islamists.
4/2017, Nangahar, Afghanistan – MOAB kills more than 92 ISIS militants
|Exposure:||Highly violent confrontations are almost unavoidable. Highest danger to employees and sites.|