Risk Rating

The assignment of the risk value within a geographic unit follows from the corresponding intensities of the prevailing conflicts in said region. If for instance, two distinct conflicts in a region are conducted with an intensity of three, a risk value of five for the area can be reached through aggregation.

At present, we distinguish between the following risk ranges:

Risk value 0 < 2

Description: Political conflicts are carried out without the use of force and mostly inside established regulatory and legal procedures.
Examples: 7/2017, Toronto, Canada – 100 indigenous protesters march against the mistreatment of indigenous people.
7/2017, Saxony, Germany– During his visit in Dresden, Federal Minister of Justice, Heiko Maas, was met with loud protests from AFD supporters.
Exposure: No interferences in the affected region.

Risk value 2 < 3

Description: Political conflicts are carried out non-violently. Actors might threaten to depart from regulated procedures or to use violence. Large-scale manifestations of political dissent are often met with coercive measures by the state.
Examples: 2/2017, Bucharest, Romania – 250,000 protesters fill streets of Bucharest marching against new corruption law.
8/2017, Hokkaido, Japan – North Korea fires missile over Japan.
Exposure: No or little interferences in the affected region but the security situation could escalate.

Risk value 3 < 4,5

Description: Violence occurred in the affected region.
Examples: 1/2017, Washington D.C., United States – One man shot during clashes at pro-Trump event.
7/2017, Guerrero, Mexico – Seven policemen killed by armed men in ambush.
Exposure: Occurrences of violence, assaults on employees, kidnappings, roadblocks and damage to the infrastructure are possible.

Risk value 4,5 < 8

Description: The region is increasingly affected by violent conflicts. Use of heavy weapons is possible. Grave conflict consequences like a higher death toll are given.
Examples: 7/2017, Donetsk, Ukraine – Militants launch several attacks on positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine using light and heavy weapons.
7/2017, South Kivu, DR Congo – Several distinct conflicts lead to an increased risk level in South Kivu. Mayi-Mayi and FNL attacks leave dozens killed
Exposure: Occurrence of increased and possibly systematic violence, assaults on employees, kidnappings, roadblocks and damage to the infrastructure are likely.

Risk value 8 < 10

Description: The region is in a state of war. Conflicts are carried out violently most likely with heavy weapons leading to increased destruction of infrastructure and a higher death toll.
Examples: 7/2017, Mindanao, Philippines – Major military operation against Abu Sayyaf kills 22 islamists.
4/2017, Nangahar, Afghanistan – MOAB kills more than 92 ISIS militants
Exposure: Highly violent confrontations are almost unavoidable. Highest danger to employees and sites.