In 2019, the Islamic Republic of Iran celebrates its 40th anniversary. The country, one of the richest countries in terms of resources, has an tremendous economic potential, also because of its approximately 80 million inhabitants, among them many young and well-educated. Both in terms of foreign and security policy, however, the country is facing difficult times ahead. Tehran’s great hopes to escape the decade-long state of international isolation with the JCPOA treaty concluded in 2015 and sanctions partially lifted also threaten to be shattered. At the same time, political and economic reforms are unavoidable also within the country if Tehran wants to prevent a resurgence of recent protests. Which are scenarios beyond the worst-case that could play out for Iran?

Author: Leif Gerber
Publication Date: May 2018

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